The purpose of this chapter is to provide a review of past economic and population trends and examine current demographic information in order to make informed decisions about the future development of Pulaski County.

Pulaski County entered the twentieth century with a population of 14,609, and it steadily rose through the 1940s until the 1950s, when it began experiencing a slight decrease that would last until 1970. The 1970s was a time for resurgence in the population base which lasted into the early and mid 1980s, but began to decline in the late 1980s and has lasted into the 1990s. Projections for the year 2000 actually predict a slight decrease (34,206) from the 1998 provisional estimate of 34,700, a projected difference of 494. Table 2 contains historical and current population data of Pulaski County, the New River Valley, adjacent counties, and Virginia.

Table 3 presents data relating to the average annual change in population growth for Pulaski County, adjacent counties, the New River Valley region, and Virginia. Between 1920 and 1960, Pulaski County's population increased at an annual rate of 1.48 percent. This rate was slightly higher than the New River Valley as a region and adjacent localities. The only other county in the New River Valley region with a higher annual average growth rate for the same period was Montgomery County, which experienced an annual rate of 1.93 percent. Virginia's rate of growth for the same time period was 1.85 percent.

Between 1970 and 1980, Pulaski County's population grew at a rate faster than the state's population, 1.92 percent compared to 1.28 percent, yet slightly slower than the New River Valley 2.31 percent rate of growth between 1970 and 1980. The New River Valley's annual rate of growth was slightly skewed by an annual rate of growth of 3.57 percent in Montgomery County. The adjacent localities also experienced their largest respective annual growth rates in the study period.

Despite the projected population loss over the next few decades, Pulaski County's population has increased annually by an average of .07 percent between 1990 and 1998.

Race

In 1980, 94.3 percent of the population in Pulaski County was White, 5.3 percent was Black, and .11 percent was American Indian. In 1990, the White population decreased to 91.71 percent, the Black population increased to 5.7 percent, the American Indian population increased to .20 percent, and the Asian-Pacific Islander population accounted for .31 percent of the population.

Table 4 contains data regarding Pulaski County population by age from 1970 to 1997. Between 1970 and 1980, there was an overall population increase of 16 percent for the County. During this time period, the largest gains were found in ten out of fourteen age groups, with losses in four age groups. The largest increases were in the following four groups: "25 to 29" (30.83%); "30 to 34" (86.76%); "35 to 39" (54.64%); and "65 and Over" (34.49%). The two significant population decreases were in the "Under 5" (8.34%) and "45 to 49" (9.43%) age categories.

Between 1980 and 1990, nearly every age group decreased except four; "35 to 44", "45 to 54", "65 to 74", and "75 +". Again, the age group "75 +" lead all increases for the time period with a percent rate of change of 58 percent. These noticeable increases among the older population segments can be attributed to medical advances, healthier living styles, and in-migration increases.

Gender

Comparison between males and females for the periods between 1970 and 1997 indicate similarities in terms of increases and decreases for each age group. The numerical differences between the genders for each respective time period are relatively few, but worth mentioning. Between 1970 and 1980, while the male population in the "15 to 19" age group increased by 2.60 percent, the female population decreased by 6.97 percent. For the age group "35 to 39", the male population increased by 72.89 percent, and the female age group increased by almost half of that increase, 39.20 percent. Overall, the total increase for both sexes between 1970 and 1980 was 16.02 percent.

Between 1980 and 1990, striking differences are found in at least four age groups. The first, "15 to 19", the male population decreased by .30 percent, while the female population increased by 7.01 percent. The second age group, "20 to 24", the male population increased by 14.91 percent and the female population decreased by 11.06 percent. The third age group, "35 to 39", shows the male population decreasing by 4.11 percent and the female population increasing by 6.32 percent. The fourth category, "55 to 59", has the male population increasing by 5.45 percent and the female population decreasing by 5.47 percent.

Between 1990 and 1997, four age groups show noteworthy numerical differences between males and females. The first, "10 to 14", the male population decreased by 3.07 percent and the female group increased by 7.64 percent. The second age group, "40 to 44", shows the male population increased by 13.33 percent and the female population increased by only 3.94 percent. The third difference is the age group ""45 to 49", where the male population increased by 25.72 percent and the female population increased by only 4.27 percent. The last major difference was in the age group "50 to 54", where the male population only increased by 11.43 percent and the female population increased by 30.26 percent.

For Pulaski County residents 60 years old and older, the comparison between males and females show one difference for each study period. Between 1970 and 1980, males in the age group "65 and Over" increased by 25.95 percent, while females in this age group increased by 40.38 percent. During the 1980 and 1990 study period, males in the "60 to 64" age group increased by 14.49 percent, while the female population only increased by 7.61 percent. During the 1990-1997 period, males in "60 to 64" group decreased by 10.34 percent, and the female population decreased by 11.82 percent.

Table 5 contains population projections for Pulaski County and adjacent localities from 1990 through 2030. New River Valley and State data provide additional comparison. Even though Pulaski County shows a slight decline between 1998 and 2000, as well as through 2010, substantial growth is predicted between 2010 and 2020.

Table 6 describes the changes in the labor force participation rates and the labor force in 1990 and 1996. In 1990, the labor participation rate for Pulaski County was 49 percent. In 1997, the labor participation rate was 48 percent. The percentage of unemployed in the County has fluctuated over the last ten years due to the closing of industrial facilities and shifting market demands. The average annual unemployment rate for 1997 was 5.4 percent, a decrease of 2.1 percent from 1990's rate of 7.5 percent.

Based on the data in Table 7, the Pulaski County labor force has increased at nearly double the rate of the overall population changes for the same time periods since 1970. Since 1990, the population appears to be growing faster, albeit marginally, than the labor force as seen in 1997 data. The possible implications of this fact remain to be seen, although one scenario could be a slight labor shortage.

Between 1980 and 1990, the total number of agricultural jobs in the local economy decreased by 38 percent, or 155 jobs. In 1980, Manufacturing accounted for 44 percent of the County's total employment base (6,621 manufacturing jobs). In 1990, manufacturing employment fell to 37 percent of the local employment base, down to 5,783 jobs. This shift represents a decrease of nearly 13 percent (838 jobs). Table 8 contains employment by sector data for the study periods of 1980-1990, and 1990-1998 and is followed by a chart illustrating the changes.

Other notable losses in the Pulaski County employment sector included Mining, which decreased by 55 percent, a loss of 48 jobs (87 jobs in 1980--39 jobs in 1990); Construction, which decreased by 4.5 percent, from 869 in 1980, to 830 in 1990, a total loss of 39 Construction-related jobs.

Employment sectors which increased between 1980 and 1990 include Forestry and Fisheries (a 14 percent increase from 7 to 8 jobs), Transportation/Communications/P.U. (13.6 percent increase from 799 to 908 jobs); Wholesale Trade increased by 8 percent from 307 to 331 jobs. Retail Trade increased by 36 percent between 1980 and 1990, increasing from 1,637 to 2,233 jobs; Finance/Ins./R.E. increased by 52 percent, a net gain of 201 jobs (390 in 1980 to 591 in 1990).

The Services sector of the economy increased by 15 percent, from 3,497 jobs in 1980 to 4,018 jobs in 1990. The Services sector now employs 26 percent of the workforce, compared to 23 percent in 1980. Public Administration also increased its employment base by 17.4 percent, from 579 to 680 jobs, or 101 new jobs between 1980 and 1990.

Between 1990 and 1998, several significant changes occurred in the employment sector of Pulaski County. Agriculture, which combined with Forestry and Fisheries, decreased by 27 percent, or 68 jobs. Construction decreased by 49 percent, or 405 jobs. Manufacturing increased by 17 percent, a gain of 1,001 jobs. Transportation, etc. decreased by 10 percent, a loss of 91 jobs. Wholesale Trade increased by 155 percent, a gain of 514 jobs. Retail Trade decreased by 3.5 percent, a loss of 78 jobs.

Finance, etc. decreased by 58 percent, and the Services sector decreased by 48 percent. Public Administration, which, in previous study years, was classified under services, shows a gain of 192 percent, more than likely a reflection of the recategorization of this sector. Overall, the percent change in the total employment sector for the County decreased by .82 percent between 1990 and 1998.

At the state level, the only employment sector which declined between 1980 and 1990 was Mining, which decreased by 31 percent. Nearly every other sector except Manufacturing, which increased by only 2.8 percent, increased percentage-wise in double digits. The overall change in Employment was an increase of 29 percent. Between 1990 and 1998, the three sectors which showed the largest increases in Pulaski County were Wholesale Trade (43 percent); Retail Trade (23 percent); and Public Administration (108.07 percent). Overall, the Employment sectors increased by 6 percent. Table 9 contains statewide employment sector data with an accompanying chart illustrating the changes between 1980 and 1990, and 1990 and 1998.

Table 10 is a list of manufacturing and mining firms located in Pulaski County and their associated employment figures. Although these manufacturing firms represent a substantial portion of the County tax base, Pulaski County is in a much larger commuter area with 31 percent of its labor force commuting to jobs in other localities. Similarly, Pulaski County receives workers from adjacent jurisdictions (See Figure 7).

FIGURE 7 - COMMUTING PATTERNS

Tourism is an active part of Pulaski County's economy. With I-81 traversing the County, the presence of the New River, Jefferson National Forest, Claytor Lake State Park, and the New River Trail (which is advertised in a national bicycling magazine), and numerous historic attractions, tourism can continue as a growth industry in Pulaski County. Table 11 contains information on the amount of tourist dollars expended, tourism-related jobs, and local and state revenue generated by the tourism industry.

In 1990, the median income for Pulaski County was $28,169. Table 12 compares Pulaski County incomes with the remaining localities in the New River Valley and Virginia following by a bar graph illustrating the comparison. 13.4 percent of the population in Pulaski County lives below the poverty line, compared with 32.2 percent in Radford, 22.1 percent in Montgomery County, and 14 percent in Floyd County. Giles County is the only locality with a lower poverty rate of 12.2 percent. Income in Pulaski County is sufficient to generate an effective buying income of $377 million in 1996.

Incomes continue to increase over time in Pulaski County as the employment base has shifted from agriculture to manufacturing toward the service and trade sectors. Between 1970 and 1980, the Average Income in Pulaski County increased by 103 percent, and between 1980 and 1990, it increased by 77 percent. Median Incomes increased by 96 percent between 1970 and 1980, and then increased by 73 percent between 1980 and 1990. Per Capita Income increased by 125 percent between 1970 and 1980, and continue to increase by 90 percent between 1980 and 1990.

1990 INCOME DISTRIBUTION - NEW RIVER VALLEY AND VIRGINIA

In the past, manufacturing wages were significantly higher than non-manufacturing positions, but in the last decade the gap has narrowed, especially in Pulaski County. Table 13 indicates an average weekly wage difference of $9.00 between non-manufacturing and manufacturing positions in Pulaski County. Retail wages still lag far behind other industry sectors, due to the generally low knowledge, skill, and abilities required for the work. Judging the figures presented in Table 13, Pulaski's manufacturing and non manufacturing wage differential is an anomaly when compared to other localities in the New River Valley and localities adjacent to the region.

As illustrated in Figure 7, 31 percent of the workforce in Pulaski County commutes outside of the County to their jobs. Due to this interrelationship of the workforce within the New River Valley, it is helpful to consider wage rates on a regional basis. Table 14 provides a listing of regional wage rates by occupation based on a 1993 wage survey of area industries by occupation.